1912 Democratic Convention: Fourth Time's the Charm?

The 1912 Democratic Convention: Fourth Time’s The Charm? ​

Since the end of the presidency of Grover Cleveland, the Democrats had trouble assembling a coalition that could win a national election. Though they consistently carried the South and performed well in a few Western states, their coalition of catholics, ethnic whites, and labor unions had been unable to challenge Republican hegemony in the electorally rich industrial mid-west and Northeast. Despite the Democrats strong showing in the 1910 mid-term, many had doubts about their ability to actually win the Presidency. This all changed just days before the Democratic convention, when news broke of Theodore Roosevelt’s substantial but failed challenge to his successor. With the Republican party split and Roosevelt mulling over an independent run, the Democrats now seemed to have a very real chance to win the Presidency for the first time in the century.

Going into the convention, the candidate who had accumulated the largest number of pledged delegates was Champ Clark, the speaker of the house from Missouri. Widely viewed as a business-friendly moderate, his largest weaknesses were the skepticism of the large progressive wing of the party and the increasingly powerful southern delegation. His main challenger was the relatively untested Woodrow Wilson, who had earned notoriety for his address to the 1910 Democratic Convention and then played an important role as an advisor to Frank Katzenbach as he pushed through a series of reforms limiting the power of lobbyists and special interests in New Jersey. On paper, Wilson looked like a formidable challenger: as a Southerner, progressive, and genteel former University President, he might just be able to weld together Northern moderates, progressives, and the Southern bloc into a majority. In practice, however, Wilson faced some daunting problems. The conservatives were almost as frightened of him as they were the specter of Bryanism following his 1910 address, the more institutionalist wing of the party had doubts about his ability to win a national election, and even many progressives were uncertain about his dedication to the cause. Also running were two largely regional candidates, Judson Harmon, a favorite son of Ohio, and Oscar Underwood, favored by Southern delegates.

William Jennings Bryan, the three-time nominee, opted to not campaign for the nomination after it became clear that with the changes to the party’s composition following their stellar showing in the 1910 mid-terms, he would likely not be able to clear the 2/3 bar required to become nominee. Though he refrained from endorsing any candidate at the beginning of the convention, many of his prior followers supported Wilson’s bid. Privately, he hoped for a dead-locked convention, which might give him the opportunity to win the nomination for the fourth time, though many doubted he could win the Presidency after three abysmal defeats.

1912 Democratic Nomination: First 11 Ballots ​

Ballots 1-11| | | | | | | | | | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---
| 1st| 2nd| 3rd| 4th| 5th| 6th| 7th| 8th| 9th| 10th| 11th
Wilson| 220| 234| 239| 244| 242| 244| 245| 249| 255| 252| 250
Clark| 465| 471.5| 469.5| 466.5| 466| 467| 469| 578| 584| 584| 584
Harmon| 190| 185| 182| 185| 189| 183| 174| 50| 22| 16| 16
Underwood| 157| 155| 155.5| 150.5| 160| 160| 162| 163| 167| 165| 164
Bryan| 30| 30| 30| 30| 33| 36| 40| 47| 59| 64| 67
Baldwin| 22| 14| 14| 14| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0
Marshall| 31| 31| 31| 31| 31| 31| 31| 31| 31| 31| 31

Timeline of events: Ballots 1-11 ​

First ballot: Clark performs well on the first ballot and emerges as the clear front-runner, but is significantly short of a majority. Wilson performs much more poorly than expected, with regional candidates doing unusually well. A strange combination of Northern progressives and Northeastern machine politicians flock to the candidacy of Judson Harmon as a “stand-in” candidate. The same happens in the South with Oscar Underwood. William Jennings Bryan, despite not announcing a candidacy, wins a surprising thirty votes from progressives skeptical about Wilson.

Ballots 2-7: Wilson and Clark consolidate some support from minor and regional candidates, but neither do so particularly quickly. By the seventh ballot, both candidates seem to be locked in something of a stale-mate, with Underwood and Harmon still retaining significant followings. On the 5th through 7th ballot, Wilson bleeds a number of skeptical supporters to the burgeoning “draft Bryan” campaign, though Wilson’s absolute number of delegates rises as he continues to pick up support from minor candidates.

Ballot 8-9: Clark secures the backing of the influential tammany hall machine and with it the majority of Judson Harmon’s delegates. Judson’s support craters in the following two ballots as his progressive backers leave him for the Draft Bryan movement and Wilson campaign.

Ballot 10-11: Stalemate ensues as Clark’s Tammany Hall endorsement alienates progressives, stalling his momentum. Wilson slowly bleeds support to Bryan, who is reportedly outraged by the Tammany Hall endorsement and considering stepping into the race.

_1912 Democratic Convention: Ballots 12-22

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Timeline of events: Ballots 12-22 ​

Ballot 12: News reaches the convention floor of Theodore Roosevelt’s plan to launch an independent candidacy. With the Republican party divided and the Democratic Party dead-locked, Bryan seizes his chance. He announces his candidacy in a convention speech before the 12th balloting begins. He surges into second, winning more than a third of Wilson’s delegates, as well as a sizable number of Underwood and Clark’s.

Ballot 13: Seeing the writing on the wall, Wilson concedes and throws his support behind Bryan. News of him doing so is enough for Underwood to do the same. Both will be given positions in the administration, and in return for the support of Underwood’s southern delegates, guarantees are put in place for the re-segregation of the American civil service. On the 13th ballot, Bryan wins a narrow majority of the delegates, but two-thirds are needed to win the nomination.

Ballot 14: Horrified at the prospect of another Bryan nomination, the business-minded conservative establishment begins scheming to deny Bryan the nomination. Marshall and Harmon endorse Clark and instruct their delegates to vote for him on the next ballot. Despite the support of all of Marshall’s 31 delegates and 12 of Harmon’s 14, Clark’s total delegate count declines as he continues to lose support to Bryan.

Ballot 15-18: Clark continues to lose support to the popular Bryan, but he is finally able to staunch the bleeding around the 17th ballot. Bryan is stopped from securing a nomination without a further move, despite winning over fifty-five percent of the delegates.

Ballot 19-21: The convention deadlocks, and talks begin amongst some to nominate a “compromise” candidate. These talks backfire spectacularly: though they had been intended to eventually include the increasingly powerful Southern delegation, at first they consisted mainly of discussions between some Northern moderate progressives backing Bryan and the Clark camp. Not only the Southern delegation, but also many Northern progressives, Labor unions, and Western delegations fear that they may be side-lined by such a deal. With the uproar over it, Bryan secures the support of the rules committee to eliminate the 2/3 requirement to win the nomination. Though it would be of dubious legality to push through any such changes during the nomination process itself, any formal legal challenges following a Bryan nomination would be disastrous for the party. Regardless, it turns out to be unnecessary: the threat itself is more than enough, and before the 22nd ballot, Clark endorses Bryan.

Ballot 22: Bryan wins the Democratic nomination. At his acceptance speech, he vows to fight “Money power” and commits to the passage of a progressive income tax, the reduction of tariff rates, and the introduction of more stringent anti-trust legislation. Shortly thereafter, Woodrow Wilson is nominated and confirmed as Bryan’s running mate.