Timeline of Events: 1913, August-October

Timeline of Events: 1913, August-October ​

August 1st: The foreign relations committee votes to make Nicaragua a protectorate of the United States. The proposal now goes to the Senate for ratification.

August 2nd: Salonica is surrounded and besieged by Bulgarian forces. The Macedonian Front is quiet, with Serbian and Bulgarian troops alike digging trenches. The Bulgarians hope to launch an offensive later that in the year to throw the Serbians out of Macedonia, but have been forced to withdraw many of their reserve units to the Ottoman Front, where they still have reason to fear a Turkish intervention.

August 4th: Bryan’s attempts to intervene in the Mexican Revolution backfire when Venustiano Carranza, the leader of the Constitutionalist faction of Revolutionary Mexico, refuses the attempts by the American government to broker a ceasefire before elections.

News of Salonica’s siege causes panic in the British and Russian foreign policy offices. With Austria increasingly aligning with Bulgaria and a reconciliation of sorts effected between the Bulgarians and Romanians, there is fear that a Bulgarian victory in the 2nd Balkan War would see de facto Central Powers hegemony over the region. Debates begin in the British foreign policy office on the previously unthinkable: entering into a treaty of Alliance with the declining Ottoman Empire. Much more preferable, of course, would be a swift Ottoman intervention into the war that might avoid a complete Bulgarian victory. In any event, the Russians would have to be consulted, and Edward Grey is sent to moot how willing Sergey Sazanov is to providing incentives for an Ottoman Intervention.

Russia, meanwhile, simply warns ominously against the imposition of an “unjust peace” upon Serbia and Greece.

August 5th: The Senate of France passes the Three Years Act by an overwhelming margin.

August 6th: With Bryan focused on the passage and design of the new Federal Banking Reform Act and Carnegie still busy in the Balkans, Woodrow Wilson is officially assigned responsibility for “The Mexican Problem”.

August 8th: The Senate votes to make Nicaragua a protectorate of the United States, making de jure what had long been a de facto relationship of American overlordship.

August 10th: Sergey Sazanov and Edward Grey meet to discuss the Balkan issue. Sazanov agrees to support an Ottoman intervention, but only if Russia is a part of the negotiating process.

August 11th: Despite the parlous state of the Greek Army, several incursions into Salonica have failed to make much head-way. The Greeks have been able to re-supply its defenders through the city’s sizable port, and the Turks have refused transit of the Bulgarian Black Sea fleet through the Dardanelles. Pictures of the brutal reality of urban warfare circulate around the world, prompting sympathy with the Greeks.

August 13th: Russia announces it will not attend the Panama-Pacific International Exposition. The Bryan Administration had been hoping to secure Russian participation as a kind of riposte to the British refusal.

August 15th: Woodrow Wilson travels to Mexico City.

August 16th: The attempt by the six powers (Britain, France, Russia, Austria-Hungary, Germany, Italy) to determine the boundaries of Albania are officially put on hold until the end of the 2nd Balkan War. The Entente powers fear Albania becoming a de facto Austrian dependency, and were hoping to give at least a portion of Epirus to Greece, but Austria insists that no territory be ceded to Greece until the conclusion of its war against Bulgaria.

August 19th: Sergey Sazonov meets with Enver Pasha and Said Halim Pasha in Istanbul. Representing the British is Louis Mallet, the ambassador. The move is seen by the Ottomans as something of an insult. In reality, the British did not wish to send Edward Grey to Istanbul because of the backlash such a visit might prompt among the traditionally anti-Turkish Liberal press. Despite the absence of the foreign minister, when the British Press does discover that the meeting took place, it will cause a minor scandal for the British Government.

The Ottomans believe - rightly - that the Entente powers are desperate for an Ottoman intervention. Nonetheless, neither the Russian nor the British expect that the Ottomans will request an outright guarantee of independence by the British in addition to the cession of Adrianople in return for their intervention into a war they have good prospects to win. This is something that the Russians refuse to countenance. Enver Pasha asserts that in the absence of a British Guarantee, the Ottomans might have to look for “other partners” to ensure its territorial integrity.

August 20th: Franz Ferdinand, nephew of the Emperor Franz Joseph, officially becomes heir to the throne of the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

August 22nd: News of the Ottoman-Entente meeting reaches the German and Austrian foreign ministries, causing a considerable degree of panic and confusion. Ungrounded fears proliferate that the Ottomans might be drifting into the Entente’s sphere, extending the encirclement of the Central Powers. Germany proposes that a guarantee be offered to the Ottoman Empire and a plebiscite used to determine the future of Adrianople. Austria, fearing that forcing a fait accompli on Bulgaria over Adrianople might alienate one of their few genuine Balkan Allies, instead proposes that the Ottomans be offered simply a guarantee in addition to some minor concessions. A diplomatic cable sent over-hastily gives the Ottomans the impression that the Germans have settled upon the notion of forcing Bulgaria to cede Adrianople in return for Ottoman non-intervention, which neither Bulgaria nor Austria had been consulted about at the time. The Ottomans therefore insist in coming negotiations on this maximalist version of German promises, halting progress.

August 24th: In a surprising move, Germany announces that it will attend the Panama-Pacific International Exposition, in a gesture widely seen as aiming to curry favor with the United States.

August 26th: The shelling of Salonica intensifies. Much of the outer portions of the city are steadily reduced to rubble. Carnegie visits the city to deliver American aid.

August 29th: Salonica falls. Now winning the war, Bulgaria refuses German requests to negotiate with the Ottomans over Adrianople. Preparations are underway for an offensive in October to push the Serbians out of Macedonia and secure favorable peace terms. Tens of thousands of Greeks are expelled from the city.

August 31st: Intending to force the hand of the British after the fall of Salonica, the Ottomans request an expansion of the German military mission. This backfires spectacularly; the already anti-Ottoman British Foreign Office concludes that the Turks are a lost cause, and the Germans treat it as a sign that the earlier concerns about an Ottoman alignment with the British were overblown. Shortly thereafter, the Germans withdraw their offer of a guarantee.

With the Turkish “option” now dead, an increasing number of French and British machine guns and light arms are smuggled into Serbia and Greece.

September 1st: The beginning of the “Month of Quiet” in the Second Balkan War. With Serbo-Greek forces on the defensive and Bulgarian ones marshaling their forces for a “decisive victory” in Macedonia, fighting consists largely of intermittent artillery duels and skirmishes between reconnaissance units.

September 2nd: The Battleship Resadiye is launched in Barrow-in-Furness. It is one of two dreadnought-class battleships commissioned for the Ottoman Navy.

September 5th: Woodrow Wilson returns to the United States. The peace mission is widely considered a failure; President Bryan announces shortly thereafter that the United States must remain neutral in the conflict along its Southern Border, but will negotiate in good faith with any democratic government.

September 7th: The Federal Banking Reform Act narrowly passes the House. The new bill mostly cuts out the private banking sector from governance of the new Federal Bank, providing them with a strictly consultative role in the selection of appointees. It is expected to face an up-hill battle in the much more evenly split Senate, though some progressive Republicans have signaled they may support the bill.

September 8th: Excavation of the Panama Canal is completed.

September 10th: In a high profile event, the foreign ministers of Panama, Guatemala, and El Salvador attend the White House, signing with William Jennings Bryan arbitration treaties that offer the promise of resolving differences between nations without war. Many European countries have still not signed such treaties with the United States, and a line in Bryan’s speech later that day about “States that lack the will and desire to achieve international peace” is widely seen as targeting them.

September 12th: The beginning of the Albanian revolt. 6,800 Albanian fighters take control of the towns of Debar, Obrid and Struva. Marching Eastwards, they threaten the Serbian rear. Two Serbian reserve divisions are diverted to deal with the internal insurgency.

September 17th: With the Ottoman Army almost fully demobilized and prospects for peace looking dim between Bulgaria and the Greco-Serb alliance, Andrew Carnegie returns home for good after four months in and out of the Balkans. Despite his success in conciliating Bulgaria and Romania, the Republican press widely mocks the “Business Magnate turned hapless diplomat, wandering about the most unenlightened portions of the European Continent”. The Democrats, attempting to spin this narrative around, largely succeed in painting Carnegie as something of a populist folk-hero: yes, a business magnate and a social elite, but one who was willing to spend time in a place as exceptionally unpleasant as the Balkans to work on behalf of American interests. The fact that he may have accomplished little was more evidence of the intransigence of the region’s problems than a defect with Carnegie’s diplomacy; his persistence in attempting to create the conditions for peace in the region is proof enough of the man’s integrity and good-will. Despite his scant public appearances, a “Carnegie Cult” slowly emerges.

September 18th: The bulk of the Albanian partisan force led by Isa Boletini converges on the town of Kicevo. Forward Serbian units have managed to entrench in the town, but most of their division has not arrived. The battle of Kicevo begins.

September 21st: The Battle of Kicevo ends in a Serbian victory when additional units arrive to relieve the siege of the town. The Partisans retreat to their redoubts further West, with two Serbian divisions now in pursuit.

September 23rd: When news reaches Bulgarian command of the internal revolt, the decision is made to expedite the planned offensive from the fourteenth to the third of October. This will substantially reduce artillery stockpiles, but it is believed that the diversion of Serbian reserve divisions will make a breakthrough much easier to achieve.

September 25th: The American-Japanese Friendship Treaty passes the Senate, becoming law.

September 28th: Satisfied with its position in the Balkans, Austria-Hungary slightly reduces its planned military expansion, opting for a 550,000 rather than 600,000 man standing army and a war-time strength of 1,900,000 men.

October 2nd: The Panama Canal is completed. William Jennings Bryan gives a speech declaring that the foreign policy of his administration aims for the “Pacification of the World through Commerce and Exchange”. The Canal will substantially increase the power projection of the American Navy, but it will also ease oceanic trade in the new world.

October 3rd: The Bulgarian offensive begins. Following a six-hour artillery bombardment, two Bulgarian Armies advance into Serbian lines. One thrust moves from Strumica north toward Stip, and the other from Kyustendil due west in the direction of Skopje. The aim of the offensive is to capture the key logistical hub of Skopje, and pin the bulk of Serbian forces South of it between the Albanian partisans who control southwest Macedonia and the Bulgarian Army.

October 4th: Despite heavy causalties inflicted upon the Serbian Army, no break-throughs are reported. The Greeks begin a small offensive over the Southern-most portions of the Vardar River in an attempt to relieve the Serbian front.

October 5th: Increasingly heavy causalties are inflicted on the Bulgarian Army by the “Chauchat” machine guns. Despite possessing a nearly 4:1 numerical superiority at some points in the front, Bulgarian forces struggle to make a break-through.

October 6th: The Greeks pause their offensive as attempts to bridge the Vardar River are foiled by Bulgarian artillery.

October 7th: Albanian partisans start raiding Serbian supply lines north of Skopje.

A Bulgarian breakthrugh is finally achieved in the eastward thrust heading out of Kyustendil. The army advances nearly eight miles before having to halt. The Serbians have rushed reinforcements into the area, and several thousand are captured before being properly equipped.

October 9th: The Bulgarian offensive toward Skopje advances around half-way to the city before pausing. With a break-through still absent on in the South, their own Southern flank is vulnerable. Bulgarian command makes the decision to split the army up, sending half toward Skopje while the other pushes toward Kocani, just north of Stip.

October 11th: Bulgarian forces are just outside of Skopje, but the Serbs have marshaled enough men in the area to make it untenable for the 15,000-man Bulgarian force to attempt to seriously assault the city. Around Kotani and Stip, Serbian forces are in an increasingly difficult situation, with their logistics strained now that Bulgarian artillery can strike the Vardar at will.

October 12th: Britain and Russia reach out to Germany to discuss a possible six-power conference to negotiate a peace deal in the Balkans.

October 13th: “Miracle in Skopje”. The hastily-planned Serbian counter-offensive catches the Bulgarian divisions outside of Skopje off-guard, breaking through the lines and reversing Bulgarian progress.

October 14th: The Albanian partisans are surrounded in the towns of Debar and Obrid, having been expelled from Struva.

The captured Albanian partisans in Debar and the majority of its Albanian civilian population are executed by the Serbian Army in the “Debar Massacre”. Images of the ethnic cleansing soon appear in the Chicago Daily News.

October 16th: Bulgarian forces north of Kocani withdraw as their own Northern flank is threatened. The Serbian Army continues its march from Skopje toward the Struma river.

October 17th: After Mexican President Victoriano Huerta arrests over 100 members of the Chamber of Deputies two weeks before scheduled elections, President Bryan inquires to his foreign policy staff about whether it might be in the American interest to provide some support for the constitutionalist faction of revolutionaries.

October 18th: With recent Bulgarian setbacks, Germany is now receptive to the prospect of six-power negotiations, but for the same reason, the Entente now chooses to delay them. With the conflict now widely recognized to be a proxy war, the fragile equilibrium between the great powers is increasingly seen as untenable.

October 19th: Williams Jennings Bryan publicly announces that the Philippine Commission will now be composed primarily of Filipinos, with the aim of putting the country on the path to “responsible democratic governance”. Shortly thereafter, the members of the Philippine Commission are appointed - seven of the nine are Filipino.

October 23rd: The Greeks resume their offensive and manage to form a beachhead on the Southern Vardar shortly after the Bulgarians have to thin their lines to deal with the Serbian counter-offensive. The Serbs reach the towns of Bosilegrad and Kyustendil, but with many of their divisions at a fraction of their former strength and the troops reaching their logistical tether, they are forced to pause.

October 24th: Sensing blood in the water and feeling diplomatically isolated, the Ottoman Empire declares war on Bulgaria. The Bulgarian divisions stationed in the East begin a fighting retreat toward Adrianople.

October 26th: Bulgarian reserves manage to clear the Greek beachhead threatening Salonica.

October 29th: At a sit-down meeting with Bryan, several members of the diplomatic corps present him with options for smuggling arms to the constitutionalists, while informing him that little good will come from interfering this directly in the Mexican Revolution.